Washington DC [US], May 12 (ANI): Michael Kugelman, US-based Foreign Policy author and expert Specialising in South Asia, while talking about the India-Pakistan tensions, said that the developments were quick, and the ceasefire was sudden and remarkable.
Kugelman, while speaking to ANI, said that the tensions between India and Pakistan were at its lowest in decades, and the ceasefire has de-escalated things.
“Well, it’s been quite a week, given how we saw such a major escalation in tensions so quickly over the last few days and then for there to be this very sudden ceasefire that appeared to come out of nowhere. It really is quite remarkable. I think that the India, Pakistan relations were at one of their lowest points in a number of decades, and they were closer to going to war than at any time since the cargo crisis,” he said.
He, however, feared that the ceasefire could be fragile.
“And in that sense, the ceasefire has really de-escalated things in a big way, but I think that it will be a fragile ceasefire because we know that tensions remain quite high between both countries,” he said.
Kugelman said that the US intervened, even though US Vice President JD Vance had said that the tensions were ‘none of their business’, because the military strikes were extremely high.
“We had seen a consistent position from the US government calling for de-escalation, so there definitely had not been any type of active mediation early on in the crisis, even though indeed Vice President Vance and President Trump had signalled that the US was, was only going to do so much. However, I would argue that there are two reasons why we saw the US jump in in the way it did to push for a ceasefire. The first reason is escalation dynamics. This is a crisis that escalated very quickly. You had significant levels of military action that were that were used by both sides,” he said.
He added that the airstrikes from both sides were alarming for the US. He added that the response was of a greater scale than the US had ever seen.
“The initial Indian airstrikes in Pakistan in retaliation for the terrorist attack in Kashmir were of a greater scale than we have seen in Pakistan for many years and then Pakistan’s response and then the fact that both countries were sending drones and missiles into each other’s countries and targeting military sites. This, I think was quite alarming for the US government just because this is a level of hostilities that had not been seen for many years,” he said.
Kugelman added that the US may also have intervened for fear of a nuclear attack. He said that the US may have been alarmed after India targeted a Pakistani nuclear airbase in Rawalpindi.
“The second reason why I think the US intervened. And I think this is really the major reason is the nuclear issue. My sense is that the US government was very concerned when you had the Indians targeting a particular airbase in Rawalpindi, which is known to be near nuclear sites and also the fact that Pakistan’s own signalling, in terms of convening, certain types of meetings or plans to convene certain types of meetings suggested the possibility that they were prepared to talk about the risk of nuclear contingencies,” he said.
“So I think that this is actually a consistent pattern in US policy when it comes to India-Pakistan crises,” he added.
Kugelman added that historically, the US has always tried to broker a deal and mediate between India and Pakistan, as both are nuclear states. This fact was also pointed out by Mike Pompeo, the Former US Secretary of State in his memoir.
“If you look at the history, the US has frequently intervened in India-Pakistan military crises, mainly because of concerns about nuclear risks and that I think was the case in Kargil. It was the case in 2001, 2002. And according to Mike Pompeo in his memoir, it was also the case in 2019. Pompeo, of course, was the Secretary of State during that crisis. So I think at the end of the day, it was a sudden concern on the part of the US that the nuclear escalation risks in this crisis were real,” he said.
However, violations will have “consequences” as Operation Sindoor remains ongoing, sources said in a stern warning to the neighbouring country, a day after India and Pakistan agreed to the cessation of hostilities. (ANI)
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